好心的读者 D Chen 终于帮忙提供了两篇关于结构方程模型的预测和因果关系的文献，非常感谢。空谈误国，文献拿来。
- Duckworth, A. L., Tsukayama, E., & May, H. (2010). Establishing causality using longitudinal hierarchical linear modeling: An illustration predicting achievement from self-control. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 1(4), 311–317. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1948550609359707
- Marsh, H. W., & Yeung, A. S. (1997). Causal effects of academic self-concept on academic achievement: Structural equation models of longitudinal data. Journal of Educational Psychology, 89(1), 41–54. http://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.89.1.41
我现在还没空看，而且貌似都是要付费才能下载的刊物。先列在这里以后再找机会看吧。